Objectives

  • To develop reference emergency management scenarios related to the considered hazards and their implication on the three ESPREssO challenges.
  • To review and implement the existing Risk Management Simulator (RMS)tool, developed in a previous FP7 project, to allow its use in WP1.

 

Based on experiences from a previous FP7 project (SENSUM) it was decided to use scenario planning as a major tool for knowledge elicitation and a way to interact with stakeholders in a topic-specific, but flexible manner. The Risk Management Simulator (RMS) engages different stakeholders (e.g., policy makers) in a realistic, collective and highly interactive exercise, able to highlight significant issues by focusing on strategic decisions. Scenario planning is a strategic methodology that organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. A group of analysts generate risk management simulations in a role-playinggame like structure aimed at different stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, civil protection authorities, etc.). People would therefore interact in a simulated future, where the occurrence of a significant natural disaster challenges the undertaken mitigation and prevention actions, and calls upon decision makers to suitably manage the resulting emergency. The RMS combines known facts about the past, defining realistic trends in the future, with plausible alternatives closely related to uncertain but significant driving forces.

In the context of the ESPREssO project, scenario planning will form the basic method for stakeholder interaction and knowledge elicitation (WP1), with the main purpose of stress-testing the established Disaster Risk Reduction procedures that depend on formal policies, subjective judgement and experience.

 

Task 3.1: Development of hazard specific reference scenarios according to the project challenges (Task Leader: S. Parolai - GFZ; BRGM, AMRA, UCPH, DKKV, ETHZ) (M1-12)

This task deals with the development of reference scenarios following the project challenges and which account for multiple natural hazards that are of high relevance for the EU. The scenarios that will be developed include the following:

1. Scenario relevant for the challenge “Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)”

Hazards: winter-storm, flood, drought

2. Scenario relevant for the challenge “Science vs Legal/policy issues in DRR”

Hazards: earthquake, tsunami, winter-storms, explosive eruptions, floods, landslides and droughts

3. Scenario relevant for the challenge “National regulations for the preparation to trans-boundary crises”

Hazards: earthquake, tsunami, winter-storms, explosive eruptions, large floods

 

This task requires a clear picture of the scientific and regulatory background in order to define the stakeholder group relevant for each hazard.

Therefore, this task relies on the outputs of WP2 (synthesise existing knowledge) and closely interacts with WP1.

Both single-hazard and multi-hazard scenarios will be considered, according to the specific environmental conditions, and the constraints related to the focus of the scenario.

This task will produce D3.1

 

Task 3.2: Review and implementation of existing methodologies for scenario development and stakeholders knowledge elicitation (Task leader: S. Parolai - GFZ; BRGM, AMRA) (M1-24)

Implementation and modification of a Risk Management Simulation tool, based on realistic multi-hazard scenario events, will be developed with the toolbox to be implemented in Task 3.3 and be based on the outcomes of the Tasks 3.1.

This task will produce D3.2.

 

Task 3.3: Compilation of a scenario design toolbox (Task leader: S. Parolai - GFZ; BRGM, AMRA) (M13-28)

The tools that enable the design and implementation of a scenario will be compiled into a RMS toolbox with accompanying guidelines in order to encourage and enable the repeatability of the proposed methods for knowledge elicitation beyond the lifetime of the project, and possibly for other topics, hazards or geographical regions. The generation of multi-hazard scenarios will also be explored in the development of related tools.

This task will produce D3.3.